Everybody, calm down

Polls at the national (not state) level have tightened enough to suggest to some that America’s Hitler might have a shot at the White House. Not surprisingly, this has spawned a minor panic.

Every wager is a balance between stakes and odds. The odds of Trump winning this election remain about as close to zero as is statistically possible for a major party nominee. However, the stakes are high enough that few people will relax before next Wednesday morning. To understand why the odds are so low even as the polling numbers seem to tighten, here are a few key charts.

First, compare the RealClearPolitics polling averages in the 2012 Election against what we’re seeing in 2016.

screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-9-28-48-am

screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-9-29-33-am

In both charts, what looks like a late surge is just reversion to the mean. Follow the trendline and you’ll see a race that remains steady, exactly where it’s been from the beginning, with Clinton holding a steady lead much larger than Obama’s 2012 advantage. In both elections there was a consolidation toward the end as fewer people identified as “undecided,” but as in 2012 they are breaking along a predictable pattern consistent with their demographics. Those demographics create the Blue Wall that is so devastating for the Republican Party.

The rest of the story is apparent from state level polls. This is what the map looks like today.

screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-9-45-17-am

States in which the Republican candidate has little or no credible shot equal 270 Electoral Votes. Ignore the hype about Nevada. Having a white nationalist stir up the Bundy brothers out in the desert is not going to produce a better Republican outcome in Nevada than we saw in 2012.

While failing to move Pennsylvania and Colorado, Trump has to find a way to avoid a loss in previous Republican strongholds like Arizona, Utah, Georgia and even Alaska. By some magic, Trump has to sweep every single state which remains close. Then he has to somehow flip a state in which he is trailing by a significant margin and suffers from crippling weaknesses in his ground game. It isn’t going to happen.

At the end of the day, there simply aren’t enough racist idiots in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Colorado to open up a path for a Republican to win the White House. This is a math problem, the same math problem we’ve been staring at for a decade. The numbers haven’t changed, but you know how Republicans are about math.

The most depressing message from this election is not that Trump might win. He won’t. What’s truly frightening is that very few Republicans are peeling away from their 2012 voting patterns. The most abhorrent political figure to rise from our political system, perhaps ever, will inspire a decline in internal Republican support of only about 3-4 percentage points. That tells a terrible story about the weakness of conscience in the face of group pressure. It is a reminder that “it can’t happen here” is a myth.

Trump will lose, but he has spawned a monster. That monster won’t go away on November 9th.

84 Comments

  1. Chris,
    Thank you for a splash of cold water on a very stressed voter. I cast my ballot weeks ago and do not have “Buyer’s Remorse” in the least, but the media keeps insisting DJT can win.

    I do have some bit of sympathy with my Republican friends and associates, but it only goes so far. One really cannot endorse the current Republican platform, regardless of the nominee/candidate in clear conscience – but when I ask them about it, these people just tell me Hillary is too corrupt and it does not matter – “no one cares about the platform”.

    Reap what you sow.

  2. I believe that we are getting overwrought with the polls. This morning, the trend lines for Clinton seem to be stabilizing. She did get some good polls yesterday. The Comey announcement seems to be losing its shock value and may have been countered by subsequent coverage.

    I have been suspicious of the polls this entire election cycle and the pollsters admit that there are an extraordinary number of unknowns. I think that the minorities are going to turn out in much larger numbers than anticipated. I frequently read about surges in voter registration among the minority communities. I suspect that the pollsters are significantly underestimating that factor and are probably underestimating others as well.

    Nevertheless, this is not going to be a blowout as I had originally hoped. Sorry to say.

  3. I voted early, and I joked on the previous thread that there could be a November surprise about Mrs. Clinton being an axe murderer and I still couldn’t change my vote even if I had voter’s remorse. Well, yesterday I came across the following article in the much respected Atlantic. It turns out that in certain states you CAN legally change your vote. This election cycle has been not only crazy but informative as well:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/trump-early-voting-buyers-remorse/506327/

    1. I think everyone here knows how I feel about Mr. Trump (not good), but I have to hand it to him for shaking up the political status quo, for teaching us to take nothing for granted, instead of proceeding on auto-pilot as we have done in the past, in the days when politicians used to say all the right things, according to an accepted script. That script is out the window, and now we are forced to improvise, to think outside the box. Bravo for that.

  4. This article makes the case of why white working class men should not vote Trump. As the author said most of the low skill industry jobs were not displaced by foreign workers either overseas or in the country but by the microchip. We make make 2X what we did in the eighties but with one third of the workers. This is a serious problem but Trump has no solution but knows how to harp on fear and prejudiced.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/opinion/donald-trump-voters-just-hear-me-out.html?ref=opinion

  5. Last night on the Last Word program , Target Smart polling firm doing polling of early voters in Florida found some amazing results. It seems that in early voting 28% of Republican voters crossed party lines and voted for Hillary. About 6% of Democrats early voters voted for Trump. Over all Hillary has 53% of the early vote. They project with the tally on election day about 48% for Hillary and about 40% for Trump in Florida. If true this cuts Trump off from winning and may portend a landslide for Hillary.

    Also a economic model (Moody’s Analytics) using about 6 factors project a win for Hillary a little over 300 electoral votes. This model has predicted every presidential election since 1980. I have found almost always there are multiply ways to analyze something and make projections.

    It is very troubling about 40% of my fellow citizens are willing to vote for a con artist and want to be Hitler like Trump. Maybe we need to make civic classes mandatory to vote and also highly encourage a basic understanding of History. If it was not for Black people, Hispanics and woman Trump would win. I wonder if most of my fellow white men have been lobotomized?

  6. “The most depressing message from this election is not that Trump might win. He won’t. What’s truly frightening is that very few Republicans are peeling away from their 2012 voting patterns.”

    This. I made a prediction back in late July – must have been on the old GOPLifer blog – that Trump’s support was more-or-less peaking at that point; as the conventions were held and summer ended, non-political junkies would start tuning in, and they’d be disgusted by something or other that Trump said or did, and his support would fall. At least some fraction of the GOP elite would disavow him, and he’d end up either solidly behind or lose in a blowout.

    Shows how much I know. Totally underestimated the tribal aspects, the rationalisations, the “at least he’s not Hitlery”, the fact that for so many people they don’t just *vote* D or R, they *are* D or R. (Something we don’t seem to have in Australia, or at least nowhere near as much – and I strongly suspect that’s a very good thing).

    While I’d like Trump to get spanked, and Pres. Clinton Mk II to start with a Senate of at least 52 or 53 Dems, to give her at least some breathing room for the odd rank breaker or death or whatever, I’ll take anything from 270 EC votes on up for HRC and 50 senators. GWB showed that even with the smallest initial margin, once you’re in the White House you can do a lot in 4 years.

    Further, the Blue Wall remains, and more old GOP diehards die every day, and more millennials achieve voting age, and younger couldn’t-be-bothereds become more consistent voters. The GOP renewal may be delayed by Trump, instead of being hastened by him, but I don’t see someone able to win both the GOP primaries and the general emerging in the next 4 years.

  7. Chris, I noted in your article that you carefully avoided predictions with the Senate races.

    A new ABC poll just released minutes ago show the race tied nationally….and I know that ‘s not the electoral college, but here’s the big take down I got from this poll: There’s been an 8 point GAIN for Trump on who is more trustworty!!!! How anyone can think the FBI action didn’t make a difference in this race, I just can’t fathom.

    1. Mary/Mime:

      The trustworthiness statistic brings to mind a George Carlin sketch about the 1996 election. He surmised that people voted for Clinton over Dole despite the fact that Clinton lied a lot yet Dole campaigned on the fact that he was “an honest man.” Carlin guessed that people didn’t believe Dole for a second and thought “Well, at least Clinton is honest about the fact that he’s a lying cheat.”

      I.e. with Trump, people KNOW what they’re getting. They KNOW they’re getting a pathological liar. With Hillary, they feel like they don’t know. That, somehow, paradoxically, translates to untrustworthiness.

    2. mime, this race has been steady for a long time now. There are a lot of nuances to polling, and one of them, particularly during times like when The Tape just came out and Comey-gate (yes, that’s a thing and yes pundits have abused the word “gate” way too much) is that Clinton and Trump supporters often just don’t respond to polling requests when they feel like their candidate isn’t doing well, hence making the race look like it’s widened or tightened when it really hasn’t, and why the polls tend to settle back down after a while.

      In other words, nothing of any significance happened except to give some useless media pundits something to yap about for a few days.

      With all respect, calm down. Clinton’s image, for better or worse, is already baked in. I seriously doubt that eight point swing is all its cracked up to be.

      1. I’m concerned about the tightening of the polls in CO, NH, NC, with FL being a big unknown. CO being tied is pretty scary. Wish Clinton hadn’t pulled out of the state early…Early voting shows Dems with a very slim (15K) lead which is much tighter than it was in 2012. (I have a friend who lives there and she’s keeping me posted.) Frankly, as I’ve stated too often, it’s the Senate I’m worried about. Tonight on MSNBC, even Steve Schmidt and Larry Sabato wouldn’t predict what may happen there because of how tight these races are and the fact that Clinton’s lead is diminishing.

        At this juncture, I don’t know how anyone can feel they have a lock on predicting the outcome of this election – especially for the Senate…..and if Clinton’s lead keeps slipping (she’s down to 3 percentage points), who knows?

        Of course I know where you stand and that’s fine. I’m a worry wart.

    3. One of the problems is that people initially tend to react to headlines. Most people do not bother to read the details. Only later after subsequent coverage, do they realize that the situation is not as black and white as the headlines initially indicate. That is true in spades regarding the entire email issue. There have been a lot of swings regarding this. Let us look at Comey’s role.

      When he made his announcement in July, few people bothered to read it in detail. A detailed reading, made it clear that it was above and beyond all else a political polemic. It was very carefully crafted to be as negative towards Clinton as possible. Even the very act of making the statement was political. According to procedure, the analysis should have been forwarded to DOJ for a decision. However, the Rs had over politicized the issue.

      Similarly, with last Friday’s letter. A careful reading revealed that the letter was largely a CYA for Comey. All he knew was that there were emails, that potentially could be related to the Clinton case on the computer taken from Weiner. As for information has been assimilated the public has realized that there was not much there.

      Combine this with the lagging effect of poling and large swings are inevitable immediately following a major event.

      There are several sad things regarding this. One is that Comey has revealed himself to be a political hack, in a job that should be non-political. He has ruined his legitimate career. Most likely he will resign early next year. He probably has a nice paycheck waiting for him in a right wing think tank. Another is that, what could be major issues relating to Russian influence and hacking are being buried. Hopefully, they will get resurrected following the election. A third matter, is that the FBI has been re-politicized and abused by Comey. It took many years for it to regain its reputation after Hoover’s abuses came to light. This may have serious impacts on the public’s perception and trust in government.

  8. V L

    And another thing I love how the fact that Trump has no GOTV operation is not considered a problem for those of you running around with your hair on fire.

    Seriously, it’s amazing that in the space of a week a campaign operation that when this is all said and done will easily be considered the worst in history has suddenly become this juggernaut that will lead the Trump to the presidency.

    Some of you are too much really.

    1. VL, one thing you may not have noticed about this election is that Republicans vote. Consistently. GOTV is much more important for Dems who have a bad habit of laissez-faire.

      Does that absolve Trump for his organizational laziness? No. But, look at his turnouts all over the U.S. (just like Bernie Sanders). Do you doubt these people aren’t fired up? Article after article have noted the deficit of enthusiasm for the Clinton campaign. We won’t know for certain until 11/8 what the voting numbers are like, but I’ll just say it again: Republicans don’t need a GOTV apparatus – they’re programmed to vote and I give them credit for that.

      Also consider that nothing Trump has done has followed the rules, yet he attained the nomination, is running competitively with Clinton, and doing it on a shoestring budget. You can be certain that the RNC has a GOTV program going on…Sen. McConnell just dumped $25 million into such an effort last week as have all the PACs and donors. Trump is siimply showing up to rev up the crowds, but he’s doing a pretty good job of that even if I can’t stand the man.

      1. V L

        I apologize if this is satire. It’s hard to tell sometimes but if not I’m going to have to fisk you now.

        I realize that last sentence doesn’t sound right.

        >>>”VL, one thing you may not have noticed about this election is that Republicans vote. Consistently. GOTV is much more important for Dems who have a bad habit of laissez-faire.”

        Which is why President McCain has done so well in office. Oh wait a minute….

        Dems vote too. You might have noticed the results of the last two presidential elections. Do Dems have problems in midterm elections? No doubt but that’s not what is happening here.

        >>>”Does that absolve Trump for his organizational laziness? No. But, look at his turnouts all over the U.S. (just like Bernie Sanders).”

        Yuge enthusiatic crowds right? Sander’s supporters made the exact same arguments. Bernie got his ass kicked. He lost mary.

        Clinton lead from start to finish and Bernie is now campaigning for her.

        >>>”Do you doubt these people aren’t fired up? Article after article have noted the deficit of enthusiasm for the Clinton campaign.”

        The media has promoted every nutjob who so much as said they were thinking about voting for Trump and have completely ignored Clinton’s voters as they are not white or insane enough for them to care about.

        >>>”Also consider that nothing Trump has done has followed the rules, yet he attained the nomination, is running competitively with Clinton, and doing it on a shoestring budget. You can be certain that the RNC has a GOTV program going on”

        Trump’s now a gifted politician? Trump got lucky in a crowded GOP field for a party of cowards in a country so polarized that if either party nominated a houseplant it would get around 40% of the vote.

        Which is why I’m not upset over the race tightening btw.

        Let me put this another way, if Trump is so good why isn’t he leading? He’s better right? People are more for him right? Much much more enthusiastic. He shouldn’t just be ahead. He should be cleaning Hillary’s clock. Then why isn’t he?

        Sad.

        >>>”You can be certain that the RNC has a GOTV program going on…Sen. McConnell just dumped $25 million into such an effort last week as have all the PACs and donors.”

        Whatever GOTV operation the GOP has is a little late. $25 million is great but not 2 weeks before the election.

        Again I will ask would you be making these same sort of arguments for Clinton if Trump was basically at 270 before Nov. 8th and she had no real plan for mobilizing support on election day? I bet you wouldn’t.

        “Republicans don’t need a GOTV apparatus – they’re programmed to vote and I give them credit for that.”

        GOP voters tend to be older and older people vote. Older people also have a nasty habit of dying so it evens out.

        Also you can ask President Mitt Romney if getting voters out matters. His GOTV program crashed on election day.

        >>>”Trump is siimply showing up to rev up the crowds, but he’s doing a pretty good job of that even if I can’t stand the man.”

        See my point about Bernie Sanders above.

        Why don’t we end this conversation here. And I will stop posting at this point. You and many others are determined to worry. Nothing I or anyone else say will reassure you.

        Have a good time pulling your hair out.

      2. Don’t stop posting on my account. What you are saying is valued, we simply look at things differently. I’m definitely in a negative mode right now, so I am the one who should stop posting. This election is wearing on me – I admit to that.

  9. I have to concur with Chris that I am still stunned that only some tiny sliver of Republican voters appear to be not voting for the nominee, despite his embodiment of what would normally appear to be a worst-case candidate for the party.

    It is fascinating to read blog posts at some conservative sites such as RedState which continue to claim that Trump is some planted, Democratic plot, nominated and supported by crossover Democrats to destroy the Republican party. They simply can’t accept that THIS IS the party they have been part of for the last 30 years or more–save for the worshiping of a Russian dictator, and rejection of trade liberalization.

    Isn’t this election simply the revenge of the Tea Party meme utterly destroying what used to be called the “conservative” principles. You know the old party is over when candidates like John McCain tout ideals like the permanent obstruction of the Supreme Court as their new guiding principle of government.

    1. Viking

      The SCOTUS is the reason why Republicans are supporting Trump.

      Since the Executive and Legislative branches have been so dysfunctional, it’s been up to the Judicial branch to decide anything.

      Both parties know that, at least for now, the ideological makeup of the Court is critical and will have an outsize effect on citizens’ daily lives. The GOP wants another Scalia. Dems want another Ginsberg.

      1. The Dems were willing to put up a perfectly good and qualified centrist. The GOP went into unprecedented obstruction territory here. It is one of my fondest wishes that the Senate scrambles to quickly confirm Garland in the lame duck session (and they absolutely CAN do that- it’s called working overtime). That would mean that the GOP, Judge Garland, and President Obama all got exactly what they deserved.

  10. The thing that is driving me pull-out-my-hair, beat-my-head-on-my-desk crazy here is that Clinton is taking hits from political land mines that could have, and should have, been defused years ago. It’s not as big a deal for the well being of the country if she is running against a sane and qualified opponent, but now she is the last defense against that buffoon of a bully, and at best it’s not shaping into the margin of victory it needs to be.

    1. V L

      Political landmines that are convincing whom? Again look at the actual numbers. Things haven’t shifted. And if there is tightening, it’s from Republicans moving toward Trump who weren’t going to vote for her ever, made up scandals or not.

      Clinton might have been careless but this is the same person who has been accused of everything under the sun by the same folks.

      1. GOPers who weren’t going to vote Trump moving back to voting for him would be a net loss for Clinton. I’d also worry about some Dems or Dem leaning people sitting out in disgust or going 3rd party. Hopefully the numbers aren’t big in places like FL, PA, NC, and other battleground states.

    1. Totally agree. To me one of the desirable things about a blowout would have been that the GOP might have actually began to take seriously the post-mortem conducted after the 2012 election. A real serious look at it would have prompted a real effort towards reform. They instead doubled down on the white-nationalism strategy that has been extensively discussed in these blogs. That enabled winning the 2014 elections. So we are where we are now.

      I have long felt that the GOP had to lose two or three elections in a row to seriously undertake reform. The nation was almost there in 2006 and 2008, but there were the wars to blame, a very serious recession (actually depression), and an uniquely charismatic black man. Then winning the 2010 election eliminated a serious discussion. Rather it resulted in the purge of the remaining moderate Republicans. We are now at a point of the Dems and GOP alternating victories since 2008. With a narrow Dem victory appearing likely, the GOP is almost certainly going to continue on its present course of obstructionism, refusal to compromise and to participate in governance. They will have a convenient excuse in an uniquely unqualified and disliked candidate.

      With a narrow Dem victory and continued GOP obstreperation, the 2018 election is becoming more important. The 2020 election will likewise be very important. If the Ds can win both of those elections, then finally the Rs may undertake some serious reconsideration. This makes the new 50-state strategy ever more important. It also gives more time for the demographic changes including increased urbanization to effectively change the electorate. Chris is looking more prescient all the time.

      1. If the Republicans lose any part of this election – potus or scotus – their excuse will be “Hillary stole the election”, (and they will pursue with religious fervor her head in impeachment investigations) or it was the GOP nominee, Trump. They have not been able to grasp that the problem is within because their base (which we now see is rallying around a despicable candidate) has not held them accountable in the election process. When you hold the majority of US gubernatorial positions, the majority of state legislatures (both houses), and majorities in both houses of Congress, why would they think they need to do anything differently? It takes brutal honesty and utter humility to look within for changes that are not being demanded from without. As someone famous said, ….a truly honest person does the right thing when no one is looking.

      2. Does an electorate who believes with all their hearts that this is true have hope for admitting they need change within their party? Check this out….Trump’s message is resonating. Dumbasses one and all…..Never mind that media began doing their research way late in the process. Never mind that what they are reporting is true….If you have to justify your vote on something other than reason, why not take on the media? You know, the media that is being booed at Trump rallies….

        http://www.gallup.com/poll/197090/majority-voters-think-media-favors-clinton.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

      3. True, most individual members of the mainstream media (the hotheads on faux news and talk radio excluded) probably favor Clinton. However, the “fairness doctrine” results in them covering every outrageous comment as if there were two sides. For example, if someone was to comment that the sun rises in the east, the fairness doctrine would require the media to find someone who says, no that is a mis-perception, it actually rises in the south. Krugman has pointed this out numerous times.

      4. Polls are shifting. Do I hope these are wrong? Temporary? Certainly, but what I will not do is ignore them. Senate hopes are riding on Clinton coat tails which seem to be getting shorter with every day…NPR news team reported from MI this morning which was thought to be a sure thing for Clinton. It’s not anymore, as the campaign’s decision to return to the state (along with CO) indicates. The interviewer stated 13% of the states’ voters are “undecided”, the rest are equally divided between Trump & Clinton.

        http://www.9news.com/news/politics/voter-guide/clinton-trump-tied-in-colorado/346436313

        http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/11/03/trump-clinton-new-hampshire

        “Since last Friday, when FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of more emails potentially pertinent to the bureau’s investigation of Ms Clinton’s private server, her prospective electoral college lead has plummeted, according to poll averages taken by RealClearPolitics.

        “A week ago, the aggregator put Ms Clinton more than 100 college votes ahead of Mr Trump, with 333 to the Republican’s 205 on a map where states were counted according to their more likely electoral outcome. Today, the same average of polls gave Ms Clinton just 273 votes, eight ahead of her rival’s 265, and barely more than the 270 needed to claim victory.

        http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-us-presidential-election-2016-momentum-shifts-battlegrounds-a7394426.html

  11. Sure, but…

    Black turnout is going to be down, and how anyone thought Hillary would get the Black turnout that Obama got is kind of baffling. Even if she gets the same percentage of their vote, the turnout was always going to be lower without Obama on top of the ticket.

    While Hispanic turnout is going to be up, most Hispanics in the US live in Texas, California, and New York, so their turnout is not going to do anything in this election. It may sow seeds for future elections, but it won’t matter this year.

    Republicans are going to do what they always do, vote Republican. My GOP wife won’t vote for Trump, but her highly educated and fiscally comfortable family members will, for reasons that defy reason other than they, “can’t stand Hillary”, and because the GOP has always at least mouthed protection of their moneyed interests.

    The blowout folks here (at GOPlifer) discussed was never going to happen. 45% of the voting public is going to vote for whatever piece of crap the GOP trots out, and frankly, the Democrats would do the same. If it were the choice, I’m voting Sheila Jackson Lee over Trump/Cruz/Santorum.

    That 45% voting for Trump also is going to vote down ballot. I’ve heard countless “vote straight ticket” radio commercials lately from the GOP. That 54/46 Senate split some here were so confident about isn’t going to happen. It is razor’s edge right now, and 52/48 would be a godsend, but I’m simply hoping for 50/50 with Kaine as the tiebreaker.

    As always, let’s remember that President Trump is going to hunt all you folks down after the election.

    1. V L

      Would you be as skeptical if it was Trump leading with these numbers?

      The blowout will be in the electoral college not in the popular vote. The votes will be close just as they were in 2008 and 2012.

      As for the black vote, we’ll have to see how the numbers shake out but the majority of people making the predictions about black voter behavior have no contact with black people so for me their punditry doesn’t matter so much.

      1. Punditry may not matter, but early voting results are showing a drop for Blacks compared to 2008 and 2012, so I’m going to go with the math, while hoping for a surge later.

        Black voting rates never equaled that of Whites until 2008 and 2012 (then dropped like a rock in 2014). I guess it is possible that the unprecedented increase was because folks really didn’t like McCain and Romney, but I suspect Obama had more to do with that energy and enthusiasm.

        Couple that with the limited enthusiam young voters have for Hillary compared to Obama, and no one should be surprised to see a dip in Black and younger voting turnout for the Democrats.

        Were Trump leading with the numbers that Hillary has right now, I would be looking for buildings off which to jump, but I also would be looking at the tightening numbers with some level of hope.

        The electoral landslide isn’t going to happen. The map above has Texas and Georgia as tossups. Those 54 votes are Trump’s and it is silly to pretend otherwise. Arizona and Iowa are toss ups in the map above, and they are going to Trump too. Trump’s 116 above is more like 190 without trying.

        Trump could rather easily win Ohio and/or Florida. Neither nor both of those will get him to 270, but Trump easily has a way to get to 220-230.

      2. V L

        230 still doesn’t equal a win. And I’ll also disagree on what the final EC number will be.

        I don’t think Trump gets anywhere near 270.

        Perhaps the difference between us is about the need for a blowout to feel good about the state of the country, or the state of the GOP is you are on the right.

        Black people in this country would be under attack blow out or not so it doesn’t matter as much to me.

        I want a blow out for election night gloating/schednfreude purposes only.

      3. >] “Trump could rather easily win Ohio and/or Florida. Neither nor both of those will get him to 270, but Trump easily has a way to get to 220-230.

        Trump isn’t going to win Florida, Homer. The numbers just aren’t there.

        Hispanic turnout in the state has skyrocketed, up an astonishing 99% over ’12 in the early vote and it’s assuredly even higher now.

        https://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/as-florida-early-voting-begins-99-more-latinos-have-already?utm_term=.flELEEzzz#.fcgqxxAAA

        In addition, Democrats have substantially closed the margin that Republicans had in the early vote in ’12 (in which they still carried FL in the end anyways, albeit by a very close margin) and if you believe the new data from TargetSmart (first disclosed on Lawrence O’Donnell’s show last night) Clinton’s carrying a substantial margin of defected Republicans.

        Where, exactly, is Trump getting the votes he needs to win my state?

        That aside, and if you’ll pardon me for it, I recall you casting some doubt on whether additional Hispanic turnout would even matter all that much, being concentrated in states like California, Texas and the like? How’s that theory working out for you? Republicans are sweating bullets over Texas’ increasing competitiveness and several House seats in CA are on the verge of flipping.

      4. I want the blowout because of the positive effect it has on the down ballot races.

        If Trump is trounced, it probably means that the GOP didn’t show up to vote rather than they showed up and voted for Hillary at the top and GOP down ballot. If they show up, they are voting down ballot GOP.

        Your point it well taken. Trump has to flip things like Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota to have any shot, and that just isn’t going to happen, but he’s at close to 200 in the electoral college without any of that.

        I think Trump’s horridness highlights the weakness of the Blue Wall theory. Does a moderately sane GOP candidate (if one could emerge from the primary) flip Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota and win Florida and Ohio? I think an easy argument could be made for that, but a harder argument for a moderately sane GOP candidate to emerge.

      5. Ryan…I promise you that the GOP is not sweating bullets here in Texas (aside from the 90 degree temperatures over the weekend).

        The fact that Hillary might, just might, get it within 10 percentage points is probably a monumental accomplishment, but no one is worried about Texas flipping.

        Sure, if there is an unprecedented surge in Black and Hispanic voting in Texas and idiots and racists can’t find their car keys on Tuesday, maybe Texas turns blue, but that isn’t going to happen.

        I do think you are right about Florida, but Ohio is looking awfully red. In Florida I actually worry about Rubio’s coattails. Rubio may win by 4 or 5 points, so we have to hope some folks are splitting that ticket.

      6. I’ll tell you who’s splitting tickets – couples. White men are largely voting for Trump and their wives? Clinton. Of course that is not across the board as my weekend visit with old (white) girlfriends attests (out of eleven 73 year olds, 8 were voting Republican/Trump; 3 Clinton.

        The focus in many of the self-analysis articles I’ve recently read by discouraged conservatives is that the party is not appealing to minorities. There is another group that they’re losing, and it’s women – and for good reason. This election is infuriating for the lack of rational thought it has produced on the right more than the candidate (who reflects the prototypical GOP supporter that has been so carefully groomed). You can’t reason with any of these people. I had one of these nice ladies actually state to me that Black people weren’t lacking equal opportunity…they just weren’t taking advantage of the opportunities that were there! While a subset like this exists (within all races), the total myopia in thinking here was simply a non-starter. How do you explain equality to someone who thinks there’s no lack of it for anyone?

      7. VL, the people noting poor Black voter turn out are basing it on actual turnout and unreturned mailed out ballots. You are correct that anyone else is just guessing.

        I know Obama isn’t on the ballot but what concerns me is that of all races, Black people have the most to lose with a GOP win….of either POTUS and/or the Senate. It is sad that Democrats have not been able to help them understand that important fact, but it is fact.

        Voter turnout of Democrats is highest with presidential elections. The mid terms they go hide in a hole somewhere…and I’m talking about all registered Democrats of all races…so there’s plenty of blame to pass around here. The key difference with this election is that there is so much more at stake.

      8. V L

        This is where you have got it all wrong.

        Black people don’t have the most to lose white people do and that’s why you are seeing this freaking out.

        Doubt me? Let’s look at the issues.

        Trump will make things worse for blacks for sure but let’s not pretend that his election means that black people will be in danger. We’ll be in danger whether he’s in office or not.

        For whites Trump represents a loss of liberty, rights, power and resources.

        White people are the ones with the stock portfolios that will tank on Nov 9th. Whites are the ones with wealth that will erode once the world turns its back on the US. Whites will lose protections of skin color privilege as anyone branded a traitor has a target on their back, literally.

        In a country run by a madman no one will be safe.

        This is the first time many of you have actually felt that fear and had to deal with what that means for your life.

        It’s not pretty is it?

        And that’s the irony of all this.

        Black people have lived in this country for CENTURIES dealing with the same fears and problems in reality that are paralyzing you all as you only contemplate them.

        Black people will survive. We have been through much much worse than anything Trump represents. Remember we were enslaved, suffered through Jim Crow, etc.

        But you all haven’t have you?

        We will get through this as we have survived all the other evil that has been thrown our way.

        Whether white Americans can or will is the real question.

      9. I want more people to see this.

        “Black people will survive. We have been through much much worse than anything Trump represents. Remember we were enslaved, suffered through Jim Crow, etc.
        But you all haven’t have you?”

        Yup. Say what you will about Republicans and the black community (Lord knows I have), but that’s a message that Democrats just can’t seem to get through their skulls.

      10. Be careful painting with too broad a brush. Democrats may not have done enough, but Republicans have done nothing. Nothing. And they won’t ever do anything. All these blue collar workers who are born-again Republicans? D.J. Trump has nothing for them. Undoubtedly, the DNC has taken the Black vote for granted, just as Republicans have taken the working class voter for granted. That’s wrong on both counts. But there are many Democrats who have worked with and supported the rights of minorities, women, gays for decades and that deserves to be noted.

      11. Those are fair observations, VL. However, I was speaking more for mainstream voters…white or otherwise…who are more concerned about equality issues than financial losses….at least this white female. Black people have suffered endlessly even as white people (like my friend) can’t see any problem there. What bothers me most is that all the progress for equal rights – minority, women, education, etc – are at risk. To me, it all boils down to equality. Dress it up or down any way you like, everything starts and ends there.

      12. VL, I’m on board with almost all of your comment, but where I disagree with you (and Chris), is with the immediate apocalypse of a Trump presidency.

        A President Trump would likely have an actual functioning government (at least for a little while). Trump winning would undoubtedly bring with it a GOP Senate and House. Bills and budgets would be passed, laws would be made, and Supreme Court justices would be confirmed.

        Sure, these bills, budgets, laws, and justices would be horrible for large groups of people (i.e., women, minorities, gay folks, poor folks, etc.), but the government would actually be functioning.

        The stock market would tumble a bit if Trump is elected, but it recovers within six months as the country continues on its current economic trajectory that is generally not impacted by the President all that much.

        Over time, the random nuclear war might impact the future viability of the country, but the GOP would have many highly functional (and horrible) plans to implement in the interim. There is a reason the GOP is coming home to roost with Trump…they have ideas, terrible, horrible ideas, that they want to implement.

      13. >] “Ryan…I promise you that the GOP is not sweating bullets here in Texas (aside from the 90 degree temperatures over the weekend).

        The fact that Hillary might, just might, get it within 10 percentage points is probably a monumental accomplishment, but no one is worried about Texas flipping.

        Sure, if there is an unprecedented surge in Black and Hispanic voting in Texas and idiots and racists can’t find their car keys on Tuesday, maybe Texas turns blue, but that isn’t going to happen.

        If that’s what Texas Republicans are thinking, I can only laugh; typical of a party that’s taken the Lone Star State for granted for far too long.

        Earlier in the year, several others, myself included, were keeping an eye on Texas to see if it’d be more competitive than usual. Lo and behold, that’s exactly what happened, so much so that major media outlets were openly contemplating whether Clinton could take it.

        Let’s be clear. Whether she actually wins it this year is irrelevant. Republicans’ grip on the state is loosening and turning the state into a battleground, sooner than some had expected or hoped.

        With sufficient investment and resources on Democrats part, don’t be surprised to see Texas being hotly contested in four years. Just sayin’

      14. “Black people will survive. We have been through much much worse than anything Trump represents. Remember we were enslaved, suffered through Jim Crow, etc.”

        That is a fair point. It is also true that unless Trump careless launches a nuke, even the very worst he could do is unlikely to have much direct impact on me- I’m in a lucky demographic. But I care beyond whether or not it impacts me. I wouldn’t be personally affected by more stop and frisk, or SCOTUS overturning Roe vs Wade, or the CIA getting permission to waterboard, or the ACA getting overturned, or any number of bad ideas he’s pushing, but they’re still bad ideas that will hurt people. I’m also mortified by the germs of the alt-right feeling that their poison is now socially acceptable and I don’t want to see them rewarded.

      15. My oldest daughter pointed out after the 2008 victory for Obama that people like Blacks who thought they could not change elections found out they could. She thought this would permently change their voting behavior. Jesse Jackson’s rainbow coalition has come of age. Ethnically minority groups with enlighted whites are the dominate voting block currently. Blacks will vote again even without Obama on the ticket just like enlighted white wii vote again for well qualified Blacks.

      16. V.L.

        “Black people will survive. We have been through much much worse than anything Trump represents. Remember we were enslaved, suffered through Jim Crow, etc.”

        As have Hispanics – minus the slavery. We will survive and get through the day. But that is not enough for me. I do not say it so much for myself but for my children. Sure they will get past this but I do not want them growing up being denied opportunities simply because of the color of their skin and their last name. A Trump presidency will have lingering years after he is out of office. The “deplorables” will become embolden and his brand of social interaction will become just a bit more normal.

        It is not enough for Blacks, Hispanics, women, and other minority groups to survive, we need to thrive.

      17. It’s not enough to survive, we should thrive….Bravo, Turtles. Most people – minorities and women, simply ask for an equal opportunity to succeed….thriving will come for most if they are given a fair opportunity. And, you are correct to focus on the next generation. This election is about more than ourselves.

  12. Chris, I have twice posted this link to different threads on Political Orphans, but it is ominous and, I feel, accurate as a prediction of what lies ahead if Clinton wins (god help her if dems fail to take the Senate). The GOP is promising political anarchy by threatening Clinton in advance with impeachment, non-stop investigation, and total obstruction in every way possible. This is simply unthinkable and I believe should be grounds for removal from office. Once again, I post this link for all to ponder.

    http://www.salon.com/2016/11/02/clinton-white-house-plus-gop-senate-its-a-recipe-for-total-disaster/?source=newsletter

    1. Removal of whom? 🙂 The irony is that while it’s easy for a majority congress to impeach a president, it’s much harder to impeach a congressperson or Senator. The voters must actually perceive that congress is behaving in an illegitimate manner, and act on that. Don’t hold your breath.

      1. Removal of whom? Members of Congress who persist in obstruction of a duly-elected POTUS. How? By not being returned to office by their constituents or by expulsion by their colleagues….which, of course, has never happened. Yet the vast majority of members of Congress are returned to office every election. That needs to change but likely won’t until we see greater diversity and/or more independent thought….how likely is that?

        Venting.

    1. Csarneson – I wish the election would be the “end of it”, but, like Chris noted, few Republicans are peeling away from the GOP despite having a candidate like Trump. That is indicative of a very sick nation, and will undoubtedly be stoked by the Trump/Breitbart crowd for their nefarious purposes if Trump loses. In fact, for Trump, he wins either way….It’s America that is losing.

  13. Politically, we’re already seeing the reverberations of this monster fester in ways that would’ve been unthinkable just a few years ago. Freed from the proverbial shackles of running with the intent to actually win anything, even the most venerated institutions in our country are free game. Assholes like Ted Cruz are one thing, but it says something when once honorable men like John McCain signal that there will be an indefinite blockade on the Supreme Court, regardless of merit or qualifications.

    Democrats, of course, will take the Senate and Harry Reid has already signaled that he’s set things up execute the nuclear option once again. Predictably, Republicans will light their receding hairlines on fire and claim an unprecedented power grab. Predictable, but nevertheless unfortunate and useless in the face of a sweeping revolution that will not only reshape the Court, but the vast swath of our judicial branch for a generation.

    Be at the ready for people who feel they have nothing to lose.

      1. It will. Republican operatives like Rick Wilson and Tim Miller openly facepalm over the fact that anyone who supported Trump will have him hanging around their necks for years, if not decades to come.

        Of course that depends on how much longer the Republican Party even exists anymore, but you get the point.

  14. V L

    Also I want to add this is what is driving minority voters. We don’t often hear about the resentment that non-white citizens feel but it is out there.

    This is what the president said on the eve of the 2012 election. It still applies today.

    We will get our revenge on Trump, the GOP and their enablers on Tuesday.

    1. I am extremely grateful to all voters who say “oh HELL NO!” to Trump. The fact that some people who feel overlooked/left behind feel that he is the only one listening to them is outweighed by all the hate (racism, sexism, xenophobia, etc.) he is fueling. Then you add in his ignorance, dishonesty, narcissism, bullying, and that microscopically thin skin. We need the biggest NO possible.

  15. V L

    Thank you for this. Everyone take a deep breath. Trump’s losing this election it’s just a matter of how much.

    As for the monster, the monster’s always been around. It’s a telling thing that most of the panic isn’t with the folks who would suffer from Trump and his followers.

    We already know what America is like at it’s worst.

      1. V L

        You know the voter suppression we’ve complained about, that right wingers have laughed off like it’s not a real issue?

        Start there.

        Also I would also look at the age breakdown of black voters after election day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see younger black voters haven’t shown up in the same numbers as 2008 and 2012.

        One of the side effects of all the nonsense we have dealt with is that the political process loses credibility.

        It’s hard to tell a young black voter that what you and older generations have done politically matters when we are dealing with the same issues decade after decade.

        I do think Clinton will win and it won’t be close in the electoral college but those numbers will give the Dems real concerns.

        Both parties will be on notice after the election. The GOP more obviously but the Dems are facing a generation of black voters who don’t want to hear about maybe someday getting what they want.

        I don’t think that’s a bad thing.

      2. It’s a bad thing for all voters if the Republicans win, VL. The Dem Party may need to do more to help minorities, but at least they are doing something under great obstruction. This much I will say with dead certainty: if the Republicans pull out a POTUS win (however improbable as Chris suggests), but keep the Senate, we will have decades of SCOTUS decisions that will neuter any effort by Democrats to level the playing field for equality. The younger Black voter may be giving Dems the heave ho just as Trump voters are giving the GOP establishment the same, but let’s be clear – the difference between Republican rule and Democratic rule is huge.

      3. V L

        Oh trust me I know the difference. There are younger people who know the difference as well but make a good argument as to how the Dems take the black vote for granted. And the Democrats do.

        Either way as I said above I’m pretty much sticking with the commentators who have been good with voting analysis and African-American political journalists when it comes to understanding what’s going on.

        People who only talk to blacks about politics every 4 years aren’t going to cut it right now.

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